This year’s NFL draft is one of the more mysterious and unpredictable in recent memory.

No clear-cut quarterbacks. Major depth at wide receiver and across all three levels of the defense. Eight teams with multiple first round picks, and a league seemingly hell-bent on setting a new record for trades in a single offseason.

As you peruse the many, many articles written up on the subject, you need to look no further than the top 10 selections to know that absolutely nobody has any idea what’s going to happen this evening when that first card gets handed off to Roger Goodell. I could go ahead and give you a pick-by-pick analysis of who will pick who, but the simple fact of the matter is the draft never goes according to plan.

Trades, draft day revelations, and “bold” decisions always throw a monkey wrench into draft day predictions, so I’m going to keep mine more broad. Here are my three big predictions for this evening’s draft:

---

TOP TEN MAYHEM

The Jaguars hold the top overall pick again, but while last year was an easy pick for them, this year’s crop of selections is much more of a “pick your own flavor” kind of a crew. With the recent tagging and resigning of Cam Robinson, however, it seems like the flavor coming down the pipe line will be a pass rusher; the general consensus puts it as a race between Travon Walker and Aiden Hutchinson. This is a classic “potential vs. production” debate, but GM Trent Baalke has a long history of picking the former over the latter, so Walker is a strong bet to be the top pick.

Doug Pederson’s presence, however, might lead to the Jags drafting an offensive tackle. The Eagles of Pederson’s time had Jason Peters on a big contract on one side and top-five Lane Johnson on a rookie deal on the other, so it’s entirely possible book-ending Lawrence with top-tier blocking on the outside could be the priority. If they pull the trigger on Evan Neal or Ikem Ekwonu instead, this will have a much bigger effect on the top ten, I suspect trade chatter will escalate immediately, with Detroit holding an interesting spot at #2.

The Lions need to build practically everywhere, and while Aiden Hutchinson the Michigan Man might be too good of an opportunity to pass up if he’s available, trading back and collecting more picks for a team desperate to land either a top pass rusher or the other tackle might be a more prudent course of action. Rumors abound that they might be in the market for a quarterback at 2, but with Jared Goff under a huge contract and needs all over the roster, it would be an exceptional reach to use the second overall pick on a player that most likely wouldn’t start until year 2 or 3.

The Texans are another interesting trade spot, depending on how things shake out with the top two picks; they’re another team with needs across the board, and Nick Casserio could look for more picks to fill out Lovie Smith’s squad. They could sit pat and take the best player available since they already have ten picks in the draft, but if someone desperate to get ahead of the Giants for tackle will probably call Houston first to get a temperature on the cost of trading up.

The Jets have two top-ten picks, and while they have needs to fill on both sides of the ball, they may trade one of their picks if the right offer were to present itself. I feel like Sauce Gardner to the Jets at 4 is almost too perfect not to happen, but the #10 pick could be up for grabs to someone looking to trade up or if the Jets take a huge swing for Deebo Samuel (if he’s available). Regardless, they need to look to get Zach Wilson protection and weapons in this draft in order for him to take the next step in a suddenly extremely competitive AFC East.

The Giants are desperate for offensive tackles and pass rushers since their last Super Bowl appearance over a decade ago, but if the top two tackles go ahead of them, they could end up drafting a pass rusher at 5 and trade out of 7. New GM Joe Schoen, who participated in the rebuild of Buffalo a few years ago, is a bit of a wild card since this is his first draft, so even if he misses out on an offensive tackle, he might just decide any two top-ten talents will help flesh out the Giants roster.

The Panthers are the first team in the draft that could draft a quarterback, but they’ve only got one pick in the first three rounds, so they very well could trade out at this spot, as well; they could use a top-ten talent, but their team is not a player away from contending with questions lingering over the quarterback position.

All told, the unpredictable nature of the top pick should have a direct effect on how quickly teams start trading around the draft. The Jaguars are holding their cards tight, but they could quickly set off a trading frenzy earlier than expected.

PREDICTION: Three trades occur and no quarterbacks are taken before the tenth pick.

---

QUARTERBACKS WILL BE TAKEN (EVENTUALLY)

So this year’s crop of quarterbacks is not nearly as sexy as the last few draft classes. None of the prospects are a clear headliner or game changer, but the top four could make arguments about being a first round selection.

Malik Willis is the most intriguing prospect of the bunch. While his small-school stature at Liberty could be viewed as a deterrent, the former Auburn recruit has a good arm and exceptional physical tools that give him the chance to be a dual-threat game changer in the NFL. He has been rumored to go as high as Detroit or Carolina in the top ten, but I think there is a better chance he slides towards the middle of the round. A team like Pittsburgh might consider trading ahead of the Saints and Eagles, who both have two picks between 16 and 19 and are rumored to be considering quarterbacks.

Kenny Pickett is another interesting prospect who could see himself picked in the middle of the round. I heard too much about his hand size than I care to hear about, but being a Pittsburgh alumni shows that he has some experience in bad weather. The Steelers feel like a real possibility for him (Mitchell Trubisky on a two-year deal screams bridge quarterback) or Willis, but I wouldn’t rule out either the Saints or the Eagles. Jameis Winston is also on a two-year deal and Philadelphia is perennially rumored to be sour on Jalen Hurts, so either team could pick him in the middle of the round.

Desmond Ridder is a proven winner as a four-year starter at Cincinnati with an old soul vibe. His dual threat capabilities make him a great prospect for the current NFL, but his completion percentage and overall efficiency from last year took a dip from his previous production. If he were to somehow last to 32, I don’t see how the Lions could pass on him; even with Jared Goff under contract for the next few years, getting the fifth-year option on a quarterback could be too good to pass up.

Matt Corral is the most enigmatic of the top four quarterbacks. While the RPO offense at Ole Miss is what is en vogue in the league nowadays, it does leave scouts in a bit of a pickle in trying to determine how well his game can translate to the pro level. More than 8200 passing yards in his collegiate career is hard to ignore, though, and it only takes one team to decide they’d rather have the fifth-year option on a quarterback project than wait until day 2 to go searching. Tennessee, Detroit, and possibly even Tampa Bay could take Corral if they decide to go that route, but he could end up being the top quarterback available for Friday night.

PREDICTION: Pickett, Willis, and Ridder all go in the first round, with Corral being a dark horse to be the fourth.

---

SO MANY TRADES

Eight teams have two first-round picks. EIGHT. We rarely get more than two or three with multiple picks, but with the large amount of trades in the last year, a fourth of the league has more flexibility than the rest of it. The likelihood all end up taking two picks, however, is a bit more unclear as this off-season has seen an unusually high amount of trades.

Not only will teams be looking for draft picks, but there are several big names still floating around as possible trade bait. Some have already been shot down (see the silly Darren Waller rumors), but one big name hovers over this draft as a possible big trade: Deebo Samuel. The Jets are rumored to be the most likely to pursue a trade (even as San Francisco says he’s not available), but a number of teams looking to draft a wideout might consider using a pick to select someone with a proven track record and a unique skill set. New Orleans, Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Kansas City all seem like the kind of teams that may kick the tires on a possible Samuel trade.

Baker Mayfield is also a name to be considered, but he seems more likely to be traded on Friday or Saturday, if at all. The reduction of the incoming Deshaun Watson’s salary to practically nothing for 2022 could suggest the Browns intend to carry both quarterbacks at least for this year while Watson’s off-field troubles get resolved.

It could also be a simple situation where teams refuse to trade for Baker at all to punish Cleveland. Scuttlebutt says many teams are extremely upset with how the Browns blew up the quarterback market with Watson’s unprecedented contract (especially given everything that has gone down with him over the last year). They may simply force the Browns to either eat Baker’s salary via cutting him or keep an extremely discontent player on the team for the upcoming season.

The movement of top wide receivers like Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill show the confidence teams have in the wide receiver class, which had a fast combine and was the most impressive offensive position group in Indy. Garrett Wilson will likely go in the top ten (Jets with one of their picks or the Falcons at 8), but from there it’s a buffet of style and sizes to choose from. GMs could make an argument for Chris Olave, Drake London, Jameson Williams and Treylon Burks for going ahead of Wilson or after; the ranking of these six wideouts varies from site to site and has shuffled multiple times since the combine.

Because of the massive depth at wide receiver and the latest trend of young rookies posting huge stat lines, this feels like the position most teams will be jostling for to select once we’re outside the top ten. With everyone shuffling around quarterbacks thinking they’ll be the next team to go to the Super Bowl in year one of a new quarterback and moving wide receivers looking for paydays, the likelihood that wide receivers will number the most selections in the first round is fairly solid. Teams with multiple 1s could look to bundle and trade up for targeted players (looking at you, Kansas City) or trade out to continually stock the rebuild cupboard (Philadelphia seems to be playing a long game with their picks).

Once we get into the back end of the round, the quarterback question will rear its head as teams contemplate getting that fifth year of contractual control on a prospect. Depending on how far the first quarterback slips in the draft, we could see a few teams trade back into the first (possible trade partners include Green Bay and Kansas City with their multiple picks) to secure someone like Ridder or Corral before the Lions select at 32; while it feels unlikely the Lions would reach on a quarterback at 2 with Goff in play, pick #32 is a totally different situation, depending on who is available.

PREDICTION: Six trades (possibly up to eight) in the first round causes every mock drafter to trash their notes and question their life choices after spending weeks breaking down teams wants and needs