A shooting-the-shit-style overview of early fantasy facts (and fictions) for 2022.

August is a wonderful time of year. Sure, it is still hot as balls outside, but we’re now in Week 2 of the NFL preseason. That means the pads are back, fall is coming, and most importantly, we have fantasy football teams to draft.

There were a shit-ton of major moves made this past offseason that shook the league landscape. While we still are waiting to see some of these new setups in action (looking at you, Denver), we are getting a glimmer of how the Week 1 picture is shaping out.

There are still a lot of moving parts to get sorted between now and Week 1. The rosters get cut down to opening day rosters, which will change a lot of predictions. However, there are stories floating around in the ether around every time that can be viewed as either factual or fictitious predictions by season’s end.

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AFC EAST

BUFFALO BILLS

Facts: This offense is going to score a lot of points. Just, so many points. They do not seem to be missing a beat after Brian Daboll’s departure to the Giants. Josh Allen looks dominant in his brief stints in the preseason. His connections to Stephon Diggs and Gabe Davis seem even stronger than they did in the playoffs last season. The depth of this squad at the skill positions looks exceptional, so barring major injuries, this will be an offense to invest in when possible.

Fiction: I keep seeing James Cook as the big name to look out for to seize the starting job in the Buffalo backfield. I get it. He looks pretty damn good against the backups. However, this seems more like a committee situation, especially in the early part of the season. Cook looks like a natural on the field, but Zack Moss is primed to steal red zone carries and Devin Singletary is still around. Barring one of them getting cut when the rosters drop down, it may take until midseason before Cook can wrestle the lion’s share from his backfield mates.

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Facts: This offense is going to take a few weeks to figure itself out, if it actually ever does. Every Belichick team seems to take about four weeks into a season before figuring out its “identity” for that year, This will be the first time the Patriots are doing it without a true offensive coordinator, so this may turn into a season-long odyssey of self-discovery. Mac Jones in year 2 should be better (still not a fantasy starter, though), and his receiver group is deeper, with Jakobi Meyers having the most value in PPR leagues as Mac’s safety valve. Kendrick Bourne, Devante Parker, and Nelson Agholor have some mid-to-late-round appeal as bench stashes if the offense finds its groove, but the points to be had will be in the backfield.

Fiction: Rhamondre Stevenson may have supplanted Damien Harris in the backfield pecking order, but there will still be a committee situation in New England this season. Stevenson has the look and burst of a top-10 back, and the shaky offensive setup may lead to a run-heavy approach this year. If they decide to run the ball into the ground, we could see Stevenson and Harris again splitting carries throughout the season, especially with Ty Montgomery seemingly locked into the scat-back role.

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MIAMI DOLPHINS

Facts: This will be a big-play offense that will look to score points from everywhere. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are arguably the fastest WR duo in the entire league; their YAC potential alone is enthralling. Tua Tagovailoa is a very accurate quarterback on the short routes, and if Hill and Waddle blow up, so will Tua by association. There is a new scheme with Mike McDaniel’s stoner ass in town (you can’t change my mind; that dude definitely inhales) and the addition of Hill, so there is a distinct possibility Tua ends up being a top-10, possibly even top-5 quarterback by season’s end.

Fiction: There will be no bell cow coming out of the Miami backfield this season. Chase Edwards is the frontrunner currently, but the southern Florida humidity breeds committee situations, plus Edwards has not exactly been a pillar of health throughout his career. Raheem Mostert and Myles Gaskins have been, at different points of time, first-team RBs, although it is unlikely all three end up on the final roster. The two will dig into Edwards’ pitch count, and thus his fantasy ceiling.

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NEW YORK JETS

Facts: Elijah Moore is going to be a breakout candidate, regardless of who is throwing him footballs. While the absolute headline this summer for the Jets is the injured Mr. Cougar, Zack Wilson, Moore will build big on his rookie campaign. Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson may get more love every now and again, but Moore has shown chemistry with both Cougar Wilson and Joe Flacco, the man who will fill in to start the season.

Fiction: Breece Hall is the super sexy candidate to be “the guy” in the Jets backfield, but Michael Carter will factor in most weeks. Jets leadership comes from San Francisco, where “what have you done for me lately?” is the mantra in terms of who will be the starter. Hall and Carter could be three-down backs, if needed, but the Jets will more likely look to take the pressure off their QB situation by leaning on both backs.