A shooting-the-shit-style overview of early fantasy facts (and fictions) for 2022.

September is upon us. That means the pads are back, fall is coming, and most importantly, we have fantasy football teams to draft.

There were a shit-ton of major moves made this past offseason that shook the league landscape. While we still are waiting to see some of these new setups in action (looking at you, Denver), we are getting a glimmer of how the Week 1 picture is shaping out.

There are still a lot of moving parts to get sorted between now and Week 1. The rosters are still in flux, with waivers after the teams cut down to 53. However, there are stories floating around in the ether around every time that can be viewed as either factual or fictitious predictions by season’s end.

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AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Facts: This will be a top-five offense in the NFL this year. Sure, people will point out Joey Burrows made a bunch of his production in a few games last year. True, but he was also coming back from a knee injury that ended his rookie year. At the end of the year, he is unstoppable, and with the improvements to the offensive line, he’ll have more time to be unstoppable. Between his trio of WRs (Jamaal Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd) and Joe Mixon, this Bengals offense has the potential to be the best offense Cincinnati has seen since the 80s. All of these guys are under 27 and under contract for the next few years, too.

Fiction: This team will take a step back this year. There are some who believe in the Super Bowl hangover, and it is very true; it is a real condition that pretty much wallops everyone it comes across. But Joey B is an ascending quarterback, and unless everyone underperforms, this is a team that will be threatening the Bills for supremacy in the AFC.

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BALTIMORE RAVENS

Facts: Lamar Jackson is an absolute boss who remains one of the most difficult players to defend against in the entire NFL. He and Mark Andrews are easily the second-best QB/TE connection in the league (Mahomes/Kelce still own the universe), and with Rashod Bateman stepping into the void left by Hollywood Brown’s departure, the diverse Ravens attack should still roll without missing a beat. Jackson’s contract issue and potential for injury will hang over this team all year, but if he’s suiting up, he’ll be a top-5 quarterback all year.

Fiction: The Ravens have tried to keep a “sunshine and rainbows” weather report for its RB room, but it is officially time to panic. What seemed like JK Dobbins’ gig to lose has turned into something of a hazy committee situation. The addition of Kenyon Drake alone (most likely as a passing back role, at least to start) takes a huge chunk out of Dobbins’ value, and with him limping at practice this week, his Week 1 status is up in the air. Whomever gets carries in this system will have the potential of big stat lines, but if the position is riddled by injuries, like last year, Lamar may end up running a lot more than he’d like to in a contract year.

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PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Facts: Najee Harris is gonna eat, and he’s gonna eat a lot this year. The Steelers are usually a smash-mouth outfit, but this year we will see a more definitive shift back to the tried-and-true formula. Whether Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett behind center, this team will be focused on limiting turnovers, which is where Najee comes in. He’s the kind of back they like (hard-nosed, but versatile out of the backfield), and there are not any real threats for carries behind him.

Fiction: The passing attack will be better than last year’s mediocre showing. Both options to start will be able to throw the ball farther than the now-retired Ben Roethlisberger, but this team will be one of the least vertical squads in the league. There’s been turnover at the position, specifically the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster and the arrival of rookie George Pickens, so there will be targets to fight for. Pickens and Diontae Johnson are best bets for WRs in this outfit, but the Steelers have a tradition of a total dark horse emerging from the depth chart to eat up targets, so it will be a situation to monitor all year.

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CLEVELAND BROWNS

Facts: This offense is going to struggle for eleven weeks, probably the full season. Jacoby Brissett is a serviceable NFL starter, but for fantasy purposes, he’s the bane of his WRs’ existences and verifiably allergic to touchdown passes. Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones are a good combo outside, and the pairing of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is one of the best RB duos in the NFL, but in a tough division filled with nasty defenses, the QB play is essential for success.

Fiction: That the team will be fine without its starting QB for eleven weeks. Even after Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension, this team may not be in a position to flip an switch and be productive. The amount of heat they’ve caught over the entire Watson scandal will linger over this team all year, and if they are approaching his return sub-.500, there may not be enough on-field Watson magic to save this season. The looming specter of his behavior (especially if he fails to meet requirements of his suspension) will haunt this team all year, whether he suits up or not.