A shooting-the-shit-style overview of early fantasy facts (and fictions) for 2022.

September is upon us. That means the pads are back, fall is coming, and most importantly, we have fantasy football teams to draft.

There were a shit-ton of major moves made this past offseason that shook the league landscape. While we still are waiting to see some of these new setups in action (looking at you, Denver), we are getting a glimmer of how the Week 1 picture is shaping out.

There are still a lot of moving parts to get sorted between now and Week 1. The rosters are still in flux, with waivers after the teams cut down to 53. However, there are stories floating around in the ether around every time that can be viewed as either factual or fictitious predictions by season’s end.

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AFC SOUTH

TENNESSEE TITANS

Facts: Derrick Henry will continue to be the wrecking ball of the Titans offense. Does last year’s foot injury give me some pause? Sure, given the high volume of carries Henry shoulders, any injuries to feet, ankles, and knees is worrisome. But when he was on the field last year, he was the best RB in the NFL. Until he shows signs of slowing down or teams are actually able to tackle him like normal people, he will continue to be one of the best RBs, even with his limited pass-receiving game in comparison to other top-flight backs

Fiction: The loss of AJ Brown will not hurt this team’s passing attack. For many moons, the Titans had no threats on the outside until they drafted the leviathan Brown. Even with the acquisitions of Robert Woods and rookie Trey Burks, Ryan Tannehill will find problems in moving the ball downfield, even with the customary eight-man box for Henry. Brown not only was an exceptional talent, but he shifted how the offense was defended against, so there is a strong chance this team will be a “run/run/short pass for first down” kind of outfit.

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Facts: Jonathan Taylor will continue to be one of the absolute best RBs in the NFL. His explosion last season was unexpected, but his talent and skill set is undeniable as a three-down workhorse. His offensive line remains strong, his coach is committed to him being the fulcrum of the offense, and while pundits like to bring up Nyheim Hines as a possible candidate to cut into his touches, it seems wildly unlikely that the NFL’s rushing king from last year will be held back in any way this season.

Fiction: This passing offense will be like last year’s mediocre unit. While I’m not entirely bullish on Matt Ryan beyond being a spot starter on a bye week, this passing offense will be much more functional than the Carson Wentz-led outfit from last year. Michael Pittman Jr. has the skill set to be a hell of a WR in this league, and even with the wildly inconsistent QB play last year was able to make several steps up in his game. With a more seasoned professional like Ryan, who is healthy and seems invigorated, Pittman could end up being a top-10 WR by season’s end. Parris Campbell and Mo Alie-Cox could also see some flex plays throughout the season, depending on their chemistry with their new QB.

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HOUSTON TEXANS

Facts: Dameon Pierce is the truth. So many people wanted to overthink the RB situation in Houston, in spite of the fact as the summer wore on and the preseason began, the rookie Pierce was by far the best option for the Texans as starter. Marlon Mack, the perceived heir apparent for backfield touches, was recently cut (might return on the practice squad), and while Rex Burkhead will no doubt see some touches on passing downs, Pierce looks like an early frontrunner for “most relevant rookie in fantasy”. The Texans were a scrappy unit last year, and with Lovie Smith’s affinity for “defense and running game” as his scheme, Pierce could have a bigtime season.

Fiction: Davis Mills will have no viability in fantasy this year. He seems to lack any intangibles that set him apart from other QBs (super speed, strong arm, etc.), but Mills surprisingly looked like a steady, competent QB during a trying rookie season. Brandin Cooks is somehow always a big-time contributor wherever he ends, and he developed a good rapport with the young Mills over the course of the year. He may not be a weekly starter, but Mills will see several spot starts throughout the year, especially during the bye weeks, where he could end up being a top-10 play that week.

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Facts: It can’t be any worse than it was last year. Seriously, there is absolutely no way any football team will have to endure what the 2021 Jaguars dealt with under the human dumpster fire, Urban Meyer. This year, they have a new, competent coach in Doug Pederson, who will help Trevor Lawrence forget all about last season and may even turn out to be a weekly fantasy starter. The WR corp of Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones Jr., and Zay Jones doesn’t exactly knock your socks off, but it could turn out to be a versatile group that Lawrence plays no favorites with. Both James Robinson and Travis Etienne Jr. are coming back from injuries last year, but with Pederson’s penchant for heavy RB usage, both running and out of the backfield, both should factor in to fantasy this season.

Fiction: This roster is a new coach away from finding itself. While there is talent here, there are a lot more questions as to how they will mesh together in the new system. There are still problem areas all over the squads, and while free agent acquisitions like Kirk and TE Evan Engram can look great in potential, both players have struggled to consistently produce at this level. Pederson may have this team on the right track, but it may not be until 2023 until we see real progress in the maturation of this team.