A shooting-the-shit-style overview of early fantasy facts (and fictions) for 2022.

September is upon us. That means the pads are back, fall is coming, and most importantly, we have fantasy football teams to draft.

There were a shit-ton of major moves made this past offseason that shook the league landscape. While we still are waiting to see some of these new setups in action (looking at you, Denver), we are getting a glimmer of how the Week 1 picture is shaping out.

There are still a lot of moving parts to get sorted between now and Week 1. The rosters are still in flux, with waivers after the teams cut down to 53. However, there are stories floating around in the ether around every time that can be viewed as either factual or fictitious predictions by season’s end.

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AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Facts: We really have no idea what is going on with the Kansas City backfield. Last year, Clyde Edwards-Helaire looked like the golden boy to score big time points as the featured back in the Chiefs high-powered offense, but it never really seemed to work out. This year, there are three players who could legitimately eat into his carries or take them away entirely. Jerick McKinnon seems locked in at the backup/passing down position, Isiah Pacheco was the rookie darling of camp, and Ronald Jones has starting experience behind a generational QB. Coach Andy Reid can be equally capricious and loyal to his running backs tracing back to his Eagles tenure, so whomever wins his trust first may end up seizing the reins of this messy backfield situation.

Fiction: The passing offense will regress without Tyreek Hill. I actually think the Hill deal was good for all sides. Hill went home to Miami and got paid and the Chiefs are able to reinvent their offense. Andy Reid consistently adjusts his offenses every few years once opponents seem to figure them out, and towards the end of last year, it seemed like their opponents had started to catch on. By trading Hill and replacing him with a combination of Smith-Schuster and Valdez-Scantling, the Chiefs offense has a good chance of adjusting to its new personnel and not missing a bit. So long as Mahomes and Kelce wear Chiefs red, this offense will continue to be productive.

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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Facts: Derek Carr and Davante Adams will have a bromance for the ages. Not many people realized before this off-season that these two went to the same college and were drafted the same year in the second round. Even fewer people realized how close these two men are, which quickly became apparent after Adams was acquired by the Raiders. Their stat lines together at Fresno were absurd, even for college stats, and the Vegas neighbors have been looking stellar all summer. Carr has been an underrated QB, but with one of his closest friends and greatest WRs in Adams on the field, to go along with Josh McDaniels scheming up how to get these two to pop off, there may be some legendary fireworks in the desert this season.

Fiction: Adams’ being Carr’s BFF will mean depressed stat lines for Waller/Renfro/Jacobs. While it is quite true that in the moment where Carr likes to say “fuck it, chuck it”, Adams will be the likely target, his presence will open up the field for the other playmakers in this offense. 5000 yards passing is within the realm of possibility for this crew, and while Jacobs has the shakiest role in the offense due to the Raiders declining his fifth year option, there will be many targets to go around in the new system.

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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Facts: Justin Herbert is a monster, and he will bring the pain this year. There are so many sensational young QBs in the league, and Herbert is right up at the top of the ascending tier. He has two stud WRs in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams with the versatile Austin Ekeler lining up behind him, so this offense can easily drop 40 on any given Sunday. Herbert’s dual threat capabilities only enhance his potential, and with the shoot-out potential in every divisional matchup this year, Herbert should continue to grow into an absolutely dominant force at his position.

Fiction: There’s not much fiction floating around about the Chargers, oddly enough. They are widely viewed as a top-tier unit with a deep roster and no glaring holes. The only area that is probably of concern would be depth at the skill positions, but that goes without saying for most teams. Their schedule is a bit of a nightmare, considering the stoutness of their division rivals, so if they end up losing close games early in the season, there might end up being some warm seats on the Chargers’ sideline.

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DENVER BRONCOS

Facts: Javonte Williams is going to have a big sophomore season. Williams is a bonafide stud who shined during his Robin duties to Melvin Gordon’s Batman, and this year it appears that their roles might be reversed. Teams will be unlikely to show many eight-man boxes this year with Russell Wilson commanding the offense, so both backs should see favorable looks when they are in the game. Williams has the ability and pop to really excel with Wilson, so there is a strong chance he will be powering this offense by the time winter arrives.

Fiction: This offense will be a juggernaut with Russ at the helm. We have absolutely no idea how this offense is going to look with a new coach’s system and a Hall of Famer at QB because the starters didn’t play this preseason. We can think putting Russ in the GB offensive system is dynamite, but without seeing it live, it’s all theoretical. The big problem for this team is the division. The Raiders and Chargers have top-flight passing attacks and devastating pass rusher tandems to contend with, and the Chiefs are always going to score points with Patrick Mahomes slinging it. These factors could lead to a much more depressed stat line for Wilson than most seem to expect, as he may end up in a Seattle-like situation where the running game becomes the focal point to keep the elite QBs off the field.