A shooting-the-shit-style overview of early fantasy facts (and fictions) for 2022.

September is upon us. That means the pads are back, fall is coming, and most importantly, we have fantasy football teams to draft.

There were a shit-ton of major moves made this past offseason that shook the league landscape. While we still are waiting to see some of these new setups in action (looking at you, Denver), we are getting a glimmer of how the Week 1 picture is shaping out.

There are still a lot of moving parts to get sorted between now and Week 1. The rosters are still in flux, with waivers after the teams cut down to 53. However, there are stories floating around in the ether around every time that can be viewed as either factual or fictitious predictions by season’s end.

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NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY BUCS

Facts: So long as Tom Brady is cool after his hiatus, this offense will score points. Sans Gronk, the big weapons for the Bucs return for 12’s last hurrah (probably), and Brady showed no sign of decline last year. Leonard Fournette returns in the backfield, and Julio Jones is the perceived heir to Gronk in the red zone. Chris Godwin is still coming back from injury, though, and Mike Evans and Julio are not spring chickens. This team may look drastically different next season, but this last Brady run has the potential to be a top-scoring fantasy unit.

Fiction: We all ought to be a bit concerned about the random Brady hiatus. Everything about his retirement/unretirement was weird, and then there was the hiatus. This year is definitely the last hurrah, but as Brady said in his return press conference, shit happens in the life of a 45 year-old man with a family. Part of the reason Brady is Brady is because of his borderline sociopathic work ethic, and with retirement right there over the horizon, it will be interesting to see if Brady remains checked in. Crazy thought to have about the unquestionable GOAT, but it will be something to monitor, as if he struggles, everyone else on this squad will struggle with him.

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Facts: Alvin Kamara will be the engine of this offense. Kamara has a suspension lingering over his head, but he seems clear to go for 2022, at least. With the departure of Sean Payton, the offensive scheme will be different, but Kamara will be the focal point. His dual-threat ability makes him a dynamic playmaker that opens up the rest of the offense. Barring injury or the suspension dropping, Kamara could end up being a top-three RB in all formats.

Fiction: This passing offense will be a bottom-tier group. Payton’s departure and Dennis Allen’s defensive vibe definitely mean things are different. Jameis Winston, however, has looked good in the Superdome, and the return to health of Mike Thomas is a boon. Kamara as an outlet should help limit Winston forcing the play, and Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry could end up being PPR darlings. The Saints passing offense has the sneaky ability to be prolific this season at bargain draft rounds.

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CAROLINA PANTHERS

Facts: Christian McCaffery is everything to this offense. CMC is obviously a top-2 pick in most drafts, so it is obvious he’s the focal point. What I mean by “everything” is there is a fairly good chance (barring injury) he ends up as the team’s leading rusher and receiver. Matt Rhule is coaching for his job, Baker Mayfield is playing for his career, so there will be a lot of CMC. He’ll be in the backfield, out-wide, and in the slot, so be prepared for a crazy stat line.

Fiction: Mayfield will be good on the field, but no for fantasy. Baker is a solid QB, and while CMC will be a huge boost to his passing stats, not much else in Carolina will be. DJ Moore has the potential to be a big-time #1 WR, but he does not score TDs. Robbie Anderson had a nose for the end zone as a Jet, but he left that in New York. The trade for Laviska Shenault Jr. from Jacksonville speaks to the lack of depth at the position. Baker and the Panthers will win more games than people figure them to, but in fantasy, outside of Moore, they won’t help you win in fantasy.

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ATLANTA FALCONS

Facts: Kyle Pitts will be great, but everyone is sleeping on Cordarrelle Patterson again. Pitts is the Falcon to target in fantasy as he will likely lead the team in most receiving categories. The lack of respect for Patterson remains baffling, as only Damien Williams seems to be a threat to carve into his workload. Patterson’s work out of the backfield adds more value in PPR formats, as does his ability to return kicks. His diverse skillset could lead to him having another stellar season for savvy zero-RB drafters who could see him fall to the mid-rounds.

Fiction: Marcus Mariota will have fewer starts than Desmond Ridder. Mariota has sneaky sleeper potential as a dual-threat QB. His accuracy may never hit 70%, but with a run-based team, who cares? Mariota has the ability to be a big-time red zone player under Arthur Smith. Ridder may well get some starts (Mariota has many injuries over the years), but Mariota has a real chance of surprising people and holding onto the job throughout most of the season.